🛢️ Midland Basin DCA — Automated Decline Curve Analysis

Martin County, TX · 30 horizontal oil wells · Hyperbolic Arps with 5%/yr terminal decline · Economic limit 150 bbl/mo

📊 Production: real Texas Railroad Commission (RRC) monthly production records, Martin County, TX — 30 horizontal oil wells (Pioneer Natural Resources, Spraberry Trend Area), single-well leases, Jan 2022–Jun 2026. Obtained via the open dataset Dansaad2020/ai-ml-dca-permian, which republishes public RRC production, permit, wellbore and completion records; RRC's interactive query endpoints were unreachable at build time, so the data was not pulled directly from rrc.texas.gov. No production numbers were fabricated.

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Well economics & fit

Cohort summary — 30 wells

Mean b-factor0.84

Mean Di (nom. annual)339%

Mean EUR505,953 bbl

Total remaining6,369,933 bbl

EUR ranking

Lease	Well	API	qi (bbl/mo)	Di ann.	b	Cum (bbl)	EUR (bbl)	Remaining (bbl)	EUR/1k ft	Cluster	R²
EPLEY-MARTIN 31E	105H	31744051	22,934	591%	1.96	333,048	960,346	627,298	98,185	Steep decline	0.534
DAVIS-LACY 31K	211H	31744055	20,171	531%	2.00	262,086	901,439	639,353	90,697	Steep decline	0.586
DAVIS-LACY 31I	209H	31744057	47,937	400%	1.05	434,886	867,536	432,650	86,176	Moderate decline	0.869
SCHARBAUER-DOVE 7F	6H	31743818	29,622	493%	1.50	315,509	832,483	516,974	80,589	Steep decline	0.850
SCHARBAUER-DOVE 7D	4H	31743816	28,317	267%	1.20	334,445	803,761	469,316	78,947	Moderate decline	0.902
BOHANAN-BLOCKER 3B	4H	31743171	27,270	179%	0.90	391,212	696,001	304,789	69,350	Moderate decline	0.926
EPLEY-MARTIN 31I	109H	31744064	52,191	302%	0.75	440,791	639,898	199,107	64,112	Moderate decline	0.923
EPLEY-MARTIN 31C	103H	31744061	53,058	297%	0.73	453,497	638,549	185,052	64,591	Moderate decline	0.924
WELCH-COX E39T	320H	31743568	48,446	413%	0.91	344,557	620,262	275,705	60,045	Moderate decline	0.856
EPLEY-MARTIN 31H	108H	31744063	18,820	548%	1.62	239,636	600,437	360,801	60,158	Steep decline	0.681
EPLEY-MARTIN 31K	111H	31744066	46,861	366%	0.86	373,579	589,306	215,727	60,250	Moderate decline	0.904
FORTUNE-ASHLEY 31M	213H	31744782	25,608	264%	1.05	249,941	577,388	327,447	57,566	Moderate decline	0.943
EPLEY-MARTIN 31D	104H	31744053	37,339	406%	0.99	317,134	558,389	241,255	56,483	Moderate decline	0.922
DAVIS-LACY 31F	206H	31744067	22,841	175%	0.78	312,514	530,500	217,986	53,798	Moderate decline	0.785
DAVIS-LACY 31A	201H	31744072	26,985	157%	0.68	301,751	504,645	202,894	50,129	Moderate decline	0.803
DAVIS-LACY 31L	212H	31744407	32,950	141%	0.43	376,732	479,659	102,927	47,647	Mild decline	0.927
GLYNN-ATCHISON 44M	213H	31743757	19,410	960%	1.67	185,811	461,062	275,251	45,287	Steep decline	0.599
DAVIS-LACY 31E	205H	31744068	41,943	319%	0.62	353,189	434,493	81,304	43,281	Moderate decline	0.919
EPLEY-MARTIN 31G	107H	31744060	32,777	614%	1.07	228,860	399,501	170,641	40,845	Steep decline	0.841
DAVIS-LACY 31G	207H	31744059	27,455	258%	0.72	250,609	364,442	113,833	36,547	Moderate decline	0.833
GLYNN-ATCHISON 44N	214H	31743755	13,286	54%	0.05	312,236	355,709	43,473	34,531	Mild decline	0.535
GLYNN-ATCHISON 44L	212H	31743759	34,729	530%	0.89	236,165	337,162	100,997	33,117	Moderate decline	0.876
DAVIS-LACY 31C	203H	31744070	32,538	394%	0.72	238,267	309,815	71,548	30,889	Moderate decline	0.908
WELCH-COX E39V	322H	31743549	45,998	192%	0.05	305,865	308,330	2,465	29,848	Mild decline	0.871
DAVIS-LACY 31B	202H	31744071	22,070	112%	0.13	283,432	307,767	24,335	31,211	Mild decline	0.909
EPLEY-MARTIN 31F	106H	31744052	30,973	370%	0.75	232,655	306,488	73,833	30,707	Moderate decline	0.895
DAVIS-LACY 31J	210H	31744056	36,117	309%	0.52	243,014	280,478	37,464	28,101	Moderate decline	0.933
DAVIS-LACY 31D	204H	31744069	14,228	151%	0.05	179,088	181,344	2,256	18,349	Mild decline	0.709
WELCH-COX E39A	301H	31743566	19,027	311%	0.63	132,224	166,096	33,872	16,395	Moderate decline	0.944
DAVIS-LACY 31H	208H	31744058	10,285	76%	0.05	145,934	165,316	19,382	16,645	Mild decline	0.764

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Decline-behavior clusters (k-means on Di, b)

Wells with similar decline shapes group together — the basis for type curves and performance benchmarking.

Cluster	Wells	Mean b	Mean Di ann.	Mean EUR (bbl)	Total EUR (bbl)	Mean R²
Mild decline	6	0.13	121%	299,687	1,798,124	0.786
Moderate decline	18	0.82	318%	512,512	9,225,208	0.892
Steep decline	6	1.64	623%	692,545	4,155,268	0.682